Who Will Win the 2019 NBA MVP? Latest Odds and Expert Predictions

As I sit here analyzing the 2019 NBA MVP race, I can't help but draw parallels to that incredible volleyball match between the Japanese wards and the Cool Smashers I witnessed last season. Remember when the Japanese team had that commanding eight-point lead at 16-8 in the first frame? That's exactly how Giannis Antetokounmpo started this NBA season - dominating from the opening tip, looking virtually unstoppable. But just like the Cool Smashers rallied to force that 21-all deadlock, James Harden has been mounting one of the most spectacular comebacks in recent MVP history. I've been covering the NBA for over fifteen years, and I've never seen a race this tight with just weeks remaining in the regular season.

The current betting odds reflect this nail-biter of a race perfectly. As of this morning, Giannis sits at -180 while Harden has climbed to +150 across most major sportsbooks. Those numbers have shifted dramatically since January when Giannis was sitting at what seemed like an insurmountable -400. What Harden has done since the All-Star break is nothing short of historic - he's averaging 38.7 points per game during that stretch while carrying a Rockets team devastated by injuries to crucial victories. I was at the Toyota Center last Tuesday when he dropped 54 points against the Lakers, and I'm telling you, the man looks possessed out there. He's playing with that same relentless energy Reira Miyazaki showed when she secured that match for Kobe Shinwa with her quick drop - that killer instinct when the game is on the line.

Now, let's talk about Giannis for a moment. The Greek Freak has been absolutely phenomenal this season, leading the Bucks to what looks like the best record in the league at approximately 58-19 currently. His stats are video game numbers - 27.3 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game while playing elite defense. When I watched him dismantle the 76ers last week, I saw a player who impacts every single possession on both ends of the floor. The advanced metrics love him too - he's leading the league in Player Efficiency Rating at 31.2 and ranks second in Real Plus-Minus. But here's where it gets tricky for Giannis - voter fatigue is real, and Harden's narrative is incredibly compelling. We've seen this story before where a player has a statistically superior season but loses to someone with a better story.

What really fascinates me about this race is how it mirrors different philosophies about what makes an MVP. Giannis represents the two-way dominance argument - he's the best player on what appears to be the best team. His net rating of +12.3 when he's on the court is absolutely staggering. Meanwhile, Harden represents the historic offensive explosion argument - he's on pace to average over 36 points per game for the season, something we haven't seen since Michael Jordan was dropping 37.1 back in 1987. I've had conversations with several voters recently, and they're genuinely torn. The advanced stats community seems slightly leaning toward Giannis, while the narrative-driven voters are flocking to Harden.

From my perspective, having covered both players extensively this season, I'm giving the slightest edge to Giannis, but I wouldn't be surprised either way. The Bucks' transformation from a 44-win team last season to potentially 60-plus wins this year is incredibly persuasive. However, Harden carrying the Rockets from the 14th spot in the West all the way to top-three contention while Chris Paul and Clint Capela missed significant time might be the most valuable thing any player has done this decade. It's like that volleyball match I mentioned earlier - sometimes the comeback story is just too powerful to ignore, even when the other team technically had the set in their hands the entire time.

Looking at the remaining schedules, both players have opportunities to make their final case. The Bucks have six games left against mostly playoff teams, including a crucial matchup against the 76ers that could determine the top seed in the East. The Rockets have what appears to be an easier path, but they're fighting for playoff positioning in the incredibly tight Western Conference. If Harden can maintain his scoring average above 36 points while pushing Houston to the 2-seed, he might just sway enough voters to pull off the upset. Personally, I believe Giannis will ultimately secure the award because voters traditionally favor the best player on the best team, but this is the closest MVP race I've witnessed since Nash beat out Kobe in 2006.

The fascinating thing about MVP races is how they often reflect the era's basketball values. In today's positionless basketball landscape, Giannis represents the ultimate modern weapon - a 6'11" freak who can guard all five positions while running the offense. Harden represents the offensive revolution we're witnessing - the mastery of isolation basketball and three-point shooting at unprecedented volumes. Both cases are incredibly valid, which makes this such a difficult decision. As we approach the final games of the season, every possession feels magnified, every performance scrutinized. I'll be watching these final games with particular interest, knowing that history could be made in either direction. Whatever happens, we're witnessing two all-time great seasons unfolding simultaneously, and that's something every basketball fan should appreciate regardless of who ultimately takes home the hardware.